Polls find support for a nuclear deal with Iran, but by varying margins. Clinton's support drops in three swing states but she still runs ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania. And Americans want to make voting easier, but not mandatory. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, March 31, 2015.
POST/ABC FINDS SUPPORT FOR IRAN NUKE DEAL - Scott Clement and Peyton M. Craighill: "By a nearly 2 to 1 margin, Americans support the notion of striking a deal with Iran that restricts the nation’s nuclear program in exchange for loosening sanctions, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds. But the survey — released hours before Tuesday’s negotiating deadline — also finds few Americans are hopeful that such an agreement will be effective. Nearly six in 10 say they are not confident that a deal will prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, unchanged from 15 months ago, when the United States, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia reached an interim agreement with Iran aimed at sealing a long-term deal. Overall, the poll finds 59 percent support an agreement in which the United States and its negotiating partners lift major economic sanctions in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Thirty-one percent oppose a deal....Republicans are about evenly divided on an Iran deal, with 47 percent in support and 43 percent opposed. The split contrasts with Republican lawmakers’ widespread backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech deriding the potential deal in early March before a joint meeting of lawmakers." [WashPost]
Pew poll finds support by narrower margin - Pew Research: "Ahead of a March 31 deadline for nuclear talks with Iran, more Americans approve (49%) than disapprove (40%) of the United States negotiating directly with Iran over its nuclear program. But the public remains skeptical of whether Iranian leaders are serious about addressing international concerns over their nuclear enrichment program. If a nuclear agreement is reached, most Americans (62%) want Congress to have final authority over the deal. Just 29% say President Obama should have final authority over any nuclear agreement with Iran. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 25-29 among 1,500 adults, finds that just 27% have heard a lot about the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Lausanne, Switzerland. Another 49% have heard a little about the negotiations, while 24% have heard nothing at all. Among those who have heard at least a little about the nuclear talks (76% of the public), 63% say Iranian leaders are not serious “about addressing international concerns about their country’s nuclear enrichment program.” [Pew]
Net negative ratings on US-Israel relations for Obama, Netanyahu - Gary Langer: "The [ABC/Post] poll finds both Obama and Netanyahu underwater in their handling of U.S.-Israel relations. Just 38 percent approve of Obama’s handling of relations with Israel, and 37 percent approve of Netanyahu’s work on relations with the United States. Fifty and 44 percent, respectively, disapprove. There’s vast partisanship in these views...Obama’s approval for handling relations with Israel ranges from 66 percent among Democrats to 34 percent of independents and a mere 8 percent of Republicans. Opinions on Netanyahu run the other way; 59 percent of Republicans approve of his handling of U.S. relations, vs. 37 percent of independents and just 21 percent of Democrats. Lastly, the poll finds essentially a split decision on the establishment of a Palestinian state, a cornerstone of U.S. policy that Netanyahu appeared to call into question during his recent re-election campaign. While many are undecided, 39 percent support establishment of a Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while 36 percent are opposed. That’s backed off from 58-22 percent in a Gallup poll in June 2003, as the Bush administration pushed its 'Roadmap for Peace.'" [ABC]
CLINTON SUPPORT DROPS IN SWING STATES - Quinnipiac: "Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's margins are down in matchups with possible 2016 Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and in no state do voters say she's honest and trustworthy, but she still runs best overall of any candidate… The closest contests are in Florida, where former Gov. Jeb Bush gets 45 percent to Clinton's 42 percent, and Pennsylvania, where U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky gets 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent… The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. Clinton's favorability rating is down in each state, but she still does better than Republican contenders, except for Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida… The gender gap remains wide as Clinton leads among women in every contest, by margins of 7 percentage points to 28 percentage points. Her margins among men range from a 3 percentage point lead to a 23-point deficit." [Quinnipiac]
TOUGH BATTLE AHEAD FOR REPUBLICANS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE - HuffPollster: "There are a lot of potential hats in the ring to be the 2016 Republican candidate, and two new state polls suggest that New Hampshire voters have not yet identified a clear frontrunner. In a Franklin Pierce-Boston Herald poll asking which potential candidates respondents would be most likely to support as the Republican presidential candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker each received 15 percent of the votes. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) effectively tied with 13 percent, followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (10 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (9 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (7 percent). Ten percent of voters say they are undecided. Eighty-one percent of voters say they could change their mind before the day of the election. Only 19 percent say they are firm in their decision…** A Suffolk University poll conducted in New Hampshire...the same week as the Franklin Pierce-Boston Herald poll, finds Bush garnering support from 19 percent of respondents, followed by Walker at 14 percent**… HuffPost Pollster, which aggregates all publicly available polls on elections, also finds that the New Hampshire primary is shaping up to be competitive. According to these aggregated results, Bush has a slight lead (18 percent) over Walker (15 percent). [HuffPost]
Boston Herald, Franklin Pierce University to team up on election polling - Boston Herald: "Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald today announced an innovative partnership for expansive and exclusive coverage of the 2016 first-in-the-nation presidential primary in New Hampshire." [Herald]
SUPPORT FOR EASIER REGISTRATION, BUT NOT MANDATORY VOTING - HuffPollster: "Earlier this month, Oregon became the first state in the nation to automatically register voters using data from the Department of Motor Vehicles, a move that stands in contrast to voting restrictions many states have enacted in recent years….Most Americans are in favor of enacting a similar proposal in their own state, a new survey finds. A 54 percent majority of Americans say they'd favor an automatic registration law in their state, a new HuffPost/YouGov poll finds, while 55 percent favor allowing eligible citizens to register on the day of an election. But there's stringent opposition to making voting compulsory...While most non-registered voters, unsurprisingly, don't consider low turnout a big problem, four in 10 support automatic registration, and most say they'd favor being able to register to vote on the day of an election….Just 22 percent of Americans agree that the government should work to get more people to vote in elections, with 71 percent saying it's an individual's own responsibility to decide whether to vote." [HuffPost]
LATINO TURNOUT LOW IN 2014 - Matt Barreto: "Across the board voter turnout was down in 2014....Looking at Democratic losses in states such as Colorado, Florida and Illinois, some observers questioned whether Latino turnout in particular was even lower. While not all 50 states have data available on official validated vote in 2014 yet, most states have now reported vote history and we can assess what happened in the 2014 midterms....While turnout was generally low in 2014, among Latino registered voters it was even lower. For example, Latino turnout in Florida was only 36.5 percent compared to 50.5 percent statewide. In 2010, Census data suggest the Latino turnout rate was roughly equal to non-Latino turnout in Florida. In 2014, there was a significant decline in Latino turnout in Florida....In Colorado a similar story unfolded where the U.S. Senate election was decided by about 40,000 votes. Latino turnout [in Colorado] was 54.8 percent compared to 71.3 percent statewide among active registered voters in 2014. Had Latino turnout been equivalent to the statewide average about 52,000 additional Latino votes would have been cast. Across each state for which official vote history data is available in 2014, Latino turnout among those registered was significantly lower than the statewide average." [HuffPost]
HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! - You can receive this daily update every weekday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and click "sign up." That's all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).
TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-A strong majority of Americans support an international climate agreement. [HuffPost]
-Americans are split over whether businesses with religious objections must serve same-sex couples. [Pew]
-A slim majority of Americans supports the use of nuclear energy. [Gallup]
-Harry Enten questions Martin O'Malley's credentials to position himself to the left of Hillary Clinton. [538]
-A new Chicago Tribune poll gives Rahm Emanuel a 58 to 30 percent lead over challengers Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. [Tribune, Pollster chart]
-Ben Lauderdale explains the 538 U.K. election forecasting model. [538]
-Kristen Soltis Anderson (R) finds young Republicans are positive about birth control and expect insurance to cover it. [National Campaign]
-Two sociologists propose a "new class of research instruments called wiki surveys." [WashPost]
Sponcer page
POST/ABC FINDS SUPPORT FOR IRAN NUKE DEAL - Scott Clement and Peyton M. Craighill: "By a nearly 2 to 1 margin, Americans support the notion of striking a deal with Iran that restricts the nation’s nuclear program in exchange for loosening sanctions, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds. But the survey — released hours before Tuesday’s negotiating deadline — also finds few Americans are hopeful that such an agreement will be effective. Nearly six in 10 say they are not confident that a deal will prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, unchanged from 15 months ago, when the United States, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia reached an interim agreement with Iran aimed at sealing a long-term deal. Overall, the poll finds 59 percent support an agreement in which the United States and its negotiating partners lift major economic sanctions in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Thirty-one percent oppose a deal....Republicans are about evenly divided on an Iran deal, with 47 percent in support and 43 percent opposed. The split contrasts with Republican lawmakers’ widespread backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech deriding the potential deal in early March before a joint meeting of lawmakers." [WashPost]
Pew poll finds support by narrower margin - Pew Research: "Ahead of a March 31 deadline for nuclear talks with Iran, more Americans approve (49%) than disapprove (40%) of the United States negotiating directly with Iran over its nuclear program. But the public remains skeptical of whether Iranian leaders are serious about addressing international concerns over their nuclear enrichment program. If a nuclear agreement is reached, most Americans (62%) want Congress to have final authority over the deal. Just 29% say President Obama should have final authority over any nuclear agreement with Iran. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 25-29 among 1,500 adults, finds that just 27% have heard a lot about the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Lausanne, Switzerland. Another 49% have heard a little about the negotiations, while 24% have heard nothing at all. Among those who have heard at least a little about the nuclear talks (76% of the public), 63% say Iranian leaders are not serious “about addressing international concerns about their country’s nuclear enrichment program.” [Pew]
Net negative ratings on US-Israel relations for Obama, Netanyahu - Gary Langer: "The [ABC/Post] poll finds both Obama and Netanyahu underwater in their handling of U.S.-Israel relations. Just 38 percent approve of Obama’s handling of relations with Israel, and 37 percent approve of Netanyahu’s work on relations with the United States. Fifty and 44 percent, respectively, disapprove. There’s vast partisanship in these views...Obama’s approval for handling relations with Israel ranges from 66 percent among Democrats to 34 percent of independents and a mere 8 percent of Republicans. Opinions on Netanyahu run the other way; 59 percent of Republicans approve of his handling of U.S. relations, vs. 37 percent of independents and just 21 percent of Democrats. Lastly, the poll finds essentially a split decision on the establishment of a Palestinian state, a cornerstone of U.S. policy that Netanyahu appeared to call into question during his recent re-election campaign. While many are undecided, 39 percent support establishment of a Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while 36 percent are opposed. That’s backed off from 58-22 percent in a Gallup poll in June 2003, as the Bush administration pushed its 'Roadmap for Peace.'" [ABC]
CLINTON SUPPORT DROPS IN SWING STATES - Quinnipiac: "Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's margins are down in matchups with possible 2016 Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and in no state do voters say she's honest and trustworthy, but she still runs best overall of any candidate… The closest contests are in Florida, where former Gov. Jeb Bush gets 45 percent to Clinton's 42 percent, and Pennsylvania, where U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky gets 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent… The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. Clinton's favorability rating is down in each state, but she still does better than Republican contenders, except for Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida… The gender gap remains wide as Clinton leads among women in every contest, by margins of 7 percentage points to 28 percentage points. Her margins among men range from a 3 percentage point lead to a 23-point deficit." [Quinnipiac]
TOUGH BATTLE AHEAD FOR REPUBLICANS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE - HuffPollster: "There are a lot of potential hats in the ring to be the 2016 Republican candidate, and two new state polls suggest that New Hampshire voters have not yet identified a clear frontrunner. In a Franklin Pierce-Boston Herald poll asking which potential candidates respondents would be most likely to support as the Republican presidential candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker each received 15 percent of the votes. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) effectively tied with 13 percent, followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (10 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (9 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (7 percent). Ten percent of voters say they are undecided. Eighty-one percent of voters say they could change their mind before the day of the election. Only 19 percent say they are firm in their decision…** A Suffolk University poll conducted in New Hampshire...the same week as the Franklin Pierce-Boston Herald poll, finds Bush garnering support from 19 percent of respondents, followed by Walker at 14 percent**… HuffPost Pollster, which aggregates all publicly available polls on elections, also finds that the New Hampshire primary is shaping up to be competitive. According to these aggregated results, Bush has a slight lead (18 percent) over Walker (15 percent). [HuffPost]
Boston Herald, Franklin Pierce University to team up on election polling - Boston Herald: "Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald today announced an innovative partnership for expansive and exclusive coverage of the 2016 first-in-the-nation presidential primary in New Hampshire." [Herald]
SUPPORT FOR EASIER REGISTRATION, BUT NOT MANDATORY VOTING - HuffPollster: "Earlier this month, Oregon became the first state in the nation to automatically register voters using data from the Department of Motor Vehicles, a move that stands in contrast to voting restrictions many states have enacted in recent years….Most Americans are in favor of enacting a similar proposal in their own state, a new survey finds. A 54 percent majority of Americans say they'd favor an automatic registration law in their state, a new HuffPost/YouGov poll finds, while 55 percent favor allowing eligible citizens to register on the day of an election. But there's stringent opposition to making voting compulsory...While most non-registered voters, unsurprisingly, don't consider low turnout a big problem, four in 10 support automatic registration, and most say they'd favor being able to register to vote on the day of an election….Just 22 percent of Americans agree that the government should work to get more people to vote in elections, with 71 percent saying it's an individual's own responsibility to decide whether to vote." [HuffPost]
LATINO TURNOUT LOW IN 2014 - Matt Barreto: "Across the board voter turnout was down in 2014....Looking at Democratic losses in states such as Colorado, Florida and Illinois, some observers questioned whether Latino turnout in particular was even lower. While not all 50 states have data available on official validated vote in 2014 yet, most states have now reported vote history and we can assess what happened in the 2014 midterms....While turnout was generally low in 2014, among Latino registered voters it was even lower. For example, Latino turnout in Florida was only 36.5 percent compared to 50.5 percent statewide. In 2010, Census data suggest the Latino turnout rate was roughly equal to non-Latino turnout in Florida. In 2014, there was a significant decline in Latino turnout in Florida....In Colorado a similar story unfolded where the U.S. Senate election was decided by about 40,000 votes. Latino turnout [in Colorado] was 54.8 percent compared to 71.3 percent statewide among active registered voters in 2014. Had Latino turnout been equivalent to the statewide average about 52,000 additional Latino votes would have been cast. Across each state for which official vote history data is available in 2014, Latino turnout among those registered was significantly lower than the statewide average." [HuffPost]
HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! - You can receive this daily update every weekday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and click "sign up." That's all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).
TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-A strong majority of Americans support an international climate agreement. [HuffPost]
-Americans are split over whether businesses with religious objections must serve same-sex couples. [Pew]
-A slim majority of Americans supports the use of nuclear energy. [Gallup]
-Harry Enten questions Martin O'Malley's credentials to position himself to the left of Hillary Clinton. [538]
-A new Chicago Tribune poll gives Rahm Emanuel a 58 to 30 percent lead over challengers Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. [Tribune, Pollster chart]
-Ben Lauderdale explains the 538 U.K. election forecasting model. [538]
-Kristen Soltis Anderson (R) finds young Republicans are positive about birth control and expect insurance to cover it. [National Campaign]
-Two sociologists propose a "new class of research instruments called wiki surveys." [WashPost]
Sponcer page
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